A Preferred Offshore Driller
What's new: 4q18 review. Target reduced to USD 5.2/sh (USD 5.4). Buy reiterated.Our take: ODL screens as one of the most attractive drillers in our coverage universe. We see several near term triggers which should reignite the share price, we believe.
EIA Weekly Product inventories drop
Teekay LNG Partners
Offering Detailed 2019 Guidance
What's new: 4q18 results ahead of expectationsOur take: Detailed EPS and cash flow guidance for 2019, largely supporting our estimates. TGP continues to deleverage quickly, whilst distributing c. 6% fwd. yield and buying back stock (USD 100m share rep. program whereof USD 13m spent YTD). Buy reiterated.
Looking Like a Tier 1 Operator
What's new: Strong 4q18 resultsOur take: TNK beating expectations through a c. USD 3k/d outperformance on the Suezmax spot fleet in the quarter. 1q19 guidance suggesting c. 10-15% upside to our estimates. Buy.
What's new: 4q18 first takeOur take: A lot of news to digest, but overall soft guidance c. 20% below expectations and high uncertainty leaves continued poor risk/ reward in our view. Reduce reiterated.
Agreement to Acquire Modern JUs Whats Not to Like?
What's new: Acquires two Gusto CJ 46 design jackups + option for two more JUs from CMHIOur take: Headline price of USD 87m/rig is attractive, but reduced by c. 31m/rig due to 100% share settlement at c. 60% premium to last close. Thats an attractive deal. Buy.
E&P Weekly - Week 8
4q18 Unlikely to Trigger Major Estimate Changes
What's new: 4q18 first takeOur take: Overall as expected with lower JV contribution the main negative. Unlikely to make material changes to 2019 estimates. Dividend of NOK 2.7/sh represent c. 50% of EPS.
Ending 2018 on a positive note
What's new: 4q18 results: EBITDAadj. of USD 102m vs. FSest. USD 87m / CS USD 92mOur take: NE reported solid 4q18 results following high uptime. NE is closed to being sold out on the jackups side for 2019 already, while floaters are starting to find momentum.
Sitting in the sweet spot
What's new: Tuning estimates ahead of 4q18 results tomorrowOur take: With Deepsea Stavanger in transit to South Africa, we expect some noise in the numbers. Our focus is on the market however, which looks increasingly tight. Buy.
US tight oil growth March down more than 50% vs. 12 months ago
Tangible evidence of market recovery
What's new: 4q18 review: target lowered to USD 12/sh. Credit and Equity Buy reiterated Our take: The floater outlook is starting to look very potent. RIG comes through as a robust play on market recovery. Share price target lowered to USD 12 (USD 13) on higher capex.
Seismic Weekly - Week 8
Short Term pains, Long Term Gains
What's new: 4q18 review and 2021 roll-out. Incorporation of Dussafu ph. 3. Our take: Disappointing results and 2019 opex guidance in Oil and Gas offset by attractive long term prospects and strong FPSO performance. Buy maintained under NOK 56 TP (55)
EC Antitrust Inspections in UK and Netherlands Financial Effects Likely Negligible
Drillers Weekly - Week 8
Golden Ocean Group
Operationally Strong Bracing for Softer 1h19
What's new: 4q18 first take Our take: Overall a strong quarter from GOGL, and though a sensible move in our view we would expect much attention to be placed at an implicit softer dividend policy.
High Yield Weekly - Week 8
Miss due to Lower Realized Oil Price Related to Timing
What's new: 4q18 first take. EBITDA of USD 149m below FSest./CS USD 166mOur take: Miss in Oil and Gas largely explained by lower realised oil price due to timing of sales. 2019 production guidance suggests upside to FSest. Case intact, Buy maintained.
4q18 First Take: EBIT 29% below CS
What's new: 4q18 First Take EBIT DKK 231m vs. FSest/CS DKK 286m/324mOur take: Weak quarterly performance as Russian ban is hurting achieved prices. Faroe Islands increase revenue tax from 4.5% to 5.0%. DPS also well below expectations.
Standing Strong on a Firm Foundation
What's new: 4q18 results EBITDAadj. of USD 219m vs. FSest. USD 222m / CS USD 240mOur take: Another solid operational performance with e.g. UDWs running at 99% revenue efficiency. EBITDAadj. in-line with costs offsetting higher adj. revenues. Buy rec. maintained.
Shipping Weekly - Week 8
Is this what Shock and Awe looks like in the oil market?
Long-Term Story Intact, but Cautious Ahead of Numbers
What's new: 4q18 previewOur take: Long-term story remains intact, but we are cautious ahead of 4q18 due Feb 21st. Lower FY18/19 EBITDA by 1%. Reiterate Buy, TP down to NOK 56 (NOK 61, 11th Nov 2018).
Setting Seven New Records
What's new: 4q18 first takeOur take: Record quarter driven by strong spot performance and continued cost reductions. Conference call to focus on present spot rates, financing alternatives and recent FID activity.
What's new: 4q18 resultsOur take: LR2 to MR rates in both 4q/ 1q19 guidance both comforting and impressive, suggesting an EBITDA potential of USD 100-125m. Buy reiterated.
Discount on All Fronts
What's new: Update post 4q18 Our take: Strong Q in though winter market. We believe the SP will trade higher as we approach 2h19. TP reduced to NOK 1.9 (NOK 2.4) on timing of re-activations. Buy reiterated
&P Weekly - Week 7
Nearing next step in the transformation
What's new: 4q18 review. Upcoming decision on second rig option. Our take: AWDR sits with three newbuild options, with the first falling due 8th March (9th is a Saturday). Equity financing is currently off the table, other options should exist, though. Buy.
4q18 First Take: Strong Performance and Solid DPS
What's new: 4q18 First Take EBIT of NOK 935m vs. FSest/CS both at NOK 919m Our take: Another solid operational quarter with low cost in both Central- and Northern-Norway. DPS of NOK 23 some NOK 4/3.50 (19%/18%) above FSest/CS.
Ocean Yield ASA
20% higher dividend capacity with new contract on FPSO
What's new: 4q18 review and updated liquidity analysis. New TP NOK 78/sh (75)Our take: We estimate a contract on FPSO DH1 and employment on Connector would add c. 20% dividend capacity to current levels leaving room for resumed dividend and fleet growth
Aker Energy on Schedule, DPS of NOK 22.5/sh in line
What's new: 4q18 first takeOur take: Solid report in line with expectations, NOK 22.5 DPS in line. Aker Energy PoD maintained by end of March. Ambition to IPO Cognite long term.
What's new: 4q18 Review Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate, TP upped to NOK 134/shOur take: Solid quarterly performance and confident management on 2020 target of 100kt harvest volumes at industry average cost boost our belief in long term story of GSF.
IEA: Minor revisions to demand - 2019 US supply revised up by 240,000 b/d
Soft Quarter with Ambitious Strategic Growth Plans
What's new: 4q18 results: EBITDAadj. of NOK 63m vs. FSest. NOK 93m / CS NOK 86mOur take: A soft quarter, but ambitious strategic growth plans, including planned IPO for MHWirth within 5 years and the combination of First Geo + AGR provides positivism.
Steady and stable
What's new: 4q18 results: EBITDAadj. of USD3m, ahead of FSest. on lower costsOur take: Slightly lower costs contributed to the EBITDA beat. Thus continued solid operational performance. One old, cold rig impaired, but newbuild options hold the future.
Seismic Weekly - Week 7
4q18 First Take: No Surprises and Bullish Market Outlook
What's new: 4q18 First take EBIT of EUR 213m vs. Preannounced at EUR 211mOur take: Limited surprises across all segments with overall solid performance and EBIT/kg outlook in line with expectations. Bullish wording on market outlook.
Ocean Yield ASA
The Empire Strikes Back
What's new: 4q18 first take. Option agreement on FPSO signed with Aker EnergyOur take: Option agreement signed with Aker Energy overshadows 9% miss to FSest. 4q18 EBITDA. A option call-off will more than bridge the dividend gap, enabling dividend growth
4q18 First Take: Solid Quarter
What's new: 4q18 First take EBIT of NOK 351m vs. FSest/CS 313m/348mOur take: Solid quarter operationally with all regions delivering in line with CS expectations and above FSest. Reiterates volume guidance for FY19 at 82kt.
Dividends Trumps All
What's new: 4q18 review. New TP NOK 17 (16), 3% negative revision to 2019-20E EBITDAOur take: Reintroduction of dividends, strong 2019 coverage and positive market comments trump weak margins. Short term headwinds, but too cheap to ignore in an improving market
Norway Royal Salmon
Buy the Dip Vol. II!
What's new: 4q18 Review Reiterate Buy, TP reduced to NOK 244/sh Our take: Disease issues in Region South destroying overall performance. Share price reaction over the day totally unwarranted. Buy the Dip!
Focus on Guidance, Market Outlook, Branding Strategy and Regional Performance
What's new: 4q18 Preview Preannounced EBIT of EUR 211m Our take: Focus on volume guidance, market outlook and branding strategy. Expect bullish wording and comments about solid short- and long-term supply/demand outlook.
OPEC Monthly Report: OPEC January Production down 800 kb/d Saudi announces March cuts to 9.8 mb/d
Saudi Arabia will reduce March production to 9.8 mb/d
A more Positive Tone Valuation Down on Higher Costs
What's new: 4q18 reviewOur take: DOs management is becoming progressively more positive on the market, though mainly for moored floaters. A negative 2019 cost guidance reduces NAV by c. USD 1/sh.
Correction Presentation Attached: Johan Sverdrup Living Quarters Site Visit
Johan Sverdrup Living Quarters Site Visit
High Yield Weekly - Week 7
Miss on EBITDA, 2019 revenue guidance in-line
What's new: 4q18 first takeOur take: c. 30% EBITDA miss on lower revenues and margins, strong FCF and order intake. 2019 revenue guidance in line, but risk on 2020 estimates.
Drillers Weekly - Week 7
Norway Royal Salmon
4q18 First Take: Missing On All Parameters
What's new: 4q18 First take EBIT of NOK 232m vs. FSest/CS 292m/284mOur take: Soft quarterly performance from NRS. Both operational EBIT and DPS below FSest/CS expectations. Reduces FY19 volume guidance by 2kt to 38kt.
Star Bulk Carriers Corp.
1q19E : 10x Earnings in a Depressed Rate Environment
4q18 Preview: 10% Below Consensus
What's new: 4q18 Preview FSest EBIT of NOK 313m vs. Inquiry CS NOK 348mOur take: FSest 10% below 4q18 CS EBIT as we expect a more gradual cost/kg recovery from the Rogaland region vs. street expectations. Reiterate Accumulate and TP NOK 127/sh.
Strong 2019 Coverage, but More Work for 2020 Needed
What's new: 4q18 review. 2% revision to 2019-20E EBITDA, new TP NOK 61 (62). FS 2021EOur take: Strong 2019 revenue coverage but naked 2020. Contract wins necessary, but a forward leaning management supports our expectations of increasing inbound awards.
Shipping Weekly - Week 7